The first half of 2021 is giving a clearer perspective on the mid-term effects of the health crisis. The European Commission’s latest estimations expect a temporary rise in inflation rates around the EU, with a gradual rebound to pre-pandemic levels starting in 2022. Romania is expected to record a swift growth in the GDP up to 5.1 % and a drop in inflation down to 2.9% by the end of 2021. However,
local estimates are not as optimistic: while a fast GDP growth is expected to be recorded starting with the second half of the year, due mainly to increased consumer activity, the National Bank of Romania’s estimation of the inflation
rate level for YE 2021 currently stands at 4.1%.

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